businessplanet

What’s next and when?

WSJ: Tony, how soon do you think electric vehicles will replace gas and diesel ones?

Seba: By 2030, 95% of U.S. automobile miles traveled will be in on-demand, autonomous electric-vehicle fleets, in a new business model called transport as a service.

This disruption isn’t going to be one where individuals simply trade in their gasoline or diesel vehicles for electric vehicles. Both gasoline/diesel vehicles and the individual ownership of automobiles will be disrupted. By 2030, 60% of light-duty vehicles are expected to be owned by fleets that provide transport-as-a-service—think electric, autonomous versions of Uber, Lyft or Didi—and only 40% to be individually owned. However, since fleet vehicles will drive 100,000 miles a year apiece, they will contribute 95% of the total miles driven in the U.S., while individuals will only contribute 5% of the miles. Also, the total number of vehicles in the U.S. will shrink by 80%, because individuals will stop buying cars for themselves and opt for these services instead.